Drivers of global tourism carbon emissions

"Tourism has a critical role to play in global carbon emissions pathway. This study estimates the global tourism carbon footprint and identifies the key drivers using environmentally extended input-output modelling. The results indicate that global tourism emissions grew 3.5% p.a. between 2009-2019, double that of the worldwide economy, reaching 5.2 Gt CO₂-e or 8.8% of total global GHG emissions in 2019. The primary drivers of emissions growth are slow technology efficiency gains (0.3% p.a.) combined with sustained high growth in tourism demand (3.8% p.a. in constant 2009 prices). Tourism emissions are associated with alarming distributional inequalities. Under both destination- and resident-based accounting, the twenty highest-emitting countries contribute three-quarters of the global footprint. The disparity in per-capita tourism emissions between high- and low-income nations now exceeds two orders of magnitude. National tourism decarbonisation strategies will require demand volume thresholds to be defined to align global tourism with the Paris Agreement."

Relevant texts

"The post-pandemic tourism rebound has been rapid and global tourism is likely to again surpass 20 billion trips in 2024⁴. This sector is pivotal to global emissions trajectories and must be aligned with the Paris Agreement."

"In total, global tourism in 2019 was responsible for 8.8% of global anthropogenic warming, or 9.9% when excluding LULUCF. Substantial non-CO2 radiative forcing effects from air transport was not included in this assessment."

"tourism expenditure growth was 3.8% per year, confirming that emissions intensity improvements were heavily outweighed by consumption growth. These findings are corroborated by airlines, cruise lines and hotel chains that report efficiency gains of 1–2.6% per annum, and sales increases of 3–7%"

"Rapid demand growth and slow technology efficiency gains are the fundamental drivers of high growth in tourism carbon emissions."

"Accelerating tourism demand growth clearly presents an impossible emissions challenge in the absence of much greater technology and supply chain efficiencies. This echoes the degrowth research findings that technology improvements that could cancel out demand growth would be extremely unrealistic."

"Limiting continued growth in demand for air transportation, especially in long-haul international travel, would achieve outcomes that are climatically and socially desirable."

"Sustained high growth emissions undermine the future viability of global tourism. Destinations are witnessing the accelerating impact of climate change which is altering patterns of tourism demand. Reduced snow volume at ski resorts, increasing fire risks and heatwave exposure are vivid examples of these climate impacts."

“National tourism decarbonisation strategies will require demand volume thresholds to be defined to align global tourism with the Paris Agreement.”

“Based on this, we support the view that tourism demand volume controls must consider historical and cumulative tourism emissions, while also being cognizant of the varied financial and technical capacities of individual countries to mitigate, and responsibilities to support low-income and small island economies.”

"Limiting continued growth in demand for air transportation, especially in long-haul international travel, would achieve outcomes that are climatically and socially desirable. Targeted measures such as CO2 taxes, carbon budgets, and alternative fuel obligations must be urgently considered in an effort to rein in future air travel emissions.”

"Strong measures to reduce travel demand are urgently required."