Harnessing social tipping dynamics: A systems approach for accelerating decarbonization

Since social and moral norms are key drivers of human behavior, shifting toward anti-fossil-fuel norms is considered a key social tipping process for rapid decarbonization. Advocacy against fossil fuel extraction even by a small group of thought leaders or influencers can stimulate the diffusion of pro-environmental values. The feedback loop norm change against fossil fuels in Figure 3 depicts this reinforcing mechanism of diffusion: thought leaders who advocate for anti-fossil-fuel norm changes can be individuals or organizations within civil society, international organizations, state leaders, and subnational governments. Their advocacy activities are empirically shown to influence public opinion and mobilization against fossil fuel exploitation, as exemplified by the individual influence of Bill McKibben and Greta Thunberg or the student activists mostly influenced by their leaders. As the population against fossil fuel exploitation increases, more thought leaders or norm entrepreneurs emerge from different communities and newly created coalitions, closing the loop of diffusion.

In contrast, the reinforcing loop of norm change for fossil fuels acts as a primary impediment to anti-fossil-fuel norm shifts, since it represents a value polarization cycle commonly observed in climate debate in multiple countries. Recent lab experiments also show that identity and polarization are strong impediments to tipping dynamics in a broader context. Pro-fossil-fuel norms develop similarly to the anti-fossil-fuel norms: the population supporting fossil fuel exploitation increases as advocacy about the benefits of fossil fuel exploitation becomes prevalent, as exemplified by the strong relation between public opposition to one of the major US climate policies and views of politicians and certain TV channels. In return, political leaders adopt a polarizing language to appeal to the increasing fraction of population supporting their view, which enhances advocacy activities and makes fossil fuel policies one of the most politically polarized issues, especially in the US. People who are exposed to opposing views stick to their own view more strongly; hence, advocacy activities enhance value polarization and reinforce the norm change feedbacks on both sides. The amplifying effect of partisan identification on climate policy support among both Republicans and Democrats in the US exemplifies the role of such feedbacks.

A balancing feedback mechanism that affects norm shifts is the fossil fuel advocacy loop. As the population against fossil fuel exploitation increases, the resulting social mobilization leads to policies that restrict fossil fuel extraction and use, as observed in many local and national settings so far. Regulations restricting fossil fuel use are the main drivers of corporate promotion by the fossil fuel industry, which enhances pro-fossil-fuel advocacy activities and eventually reduces the population against fossil fuel exploitation. This feedback loop potentially dampens the growth of the population against fossil fuels, hence the norm shifts. A similar balancing loop can be formulated due to the media coverage of climate change leading to higher pro-fossil-fuel advertisements, often triggered by advocacy activities of influential thought leaders. The real-world example of fossil fuel resurgence following the war in Ukraine provides an opportunity to examine how these dynamics can play out on the world stage.